🔴 In just 24 days, we have seen…
– A geopolitical crisis with Iran; culminating in an attack on al-Asad airbase near Baghdad.
– Downing of Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752.
– The start of impeachment proceedings in the senate.
– Wuhan Virus becoming a regional health crisis.
🔴 Non è nulla… la Cina allarga la quarantena a 56 milioni di abitanti... ho la sensazione che presto verrà imposta anche a Shangai…
🔴 NEW: China is now implementing nationwide measures to detect the Wuhan virus – AFP
🔴 Dr. Eric Feigl Ding/Public Health Scientist/ Epidemiologist:
1/ “HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – the new coronavirus is a 3.8! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating…” – Wuhan Coronovirus/Coronavirus Outbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing…
3/ … We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan….
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that…
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are…
6/ …critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that…
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!!
8/ SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS…
9/ …cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with…
10/ …possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. WHO and CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: [link]
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new Wuhan Coronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. Flu reference: [link]
13/ …and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients… quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”!
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks…
I’ll be honest – as an epidemiologist, I’m really deeply worried about this new coronavirus outbreak.
1) the virus has an upward infection trajectory curve much steeper than SARS.
2) it can be transmitted person to person before symptoms appear — I.e. it is silently contagious!
This is why I’m nervous about this outbreak as an epidemiologist. If this happened in America – it would be like shutting down half the Eastern seaboard – basically the entire Mid Atlantic region or more. …la spagnola aveva un R0 molto più basso, 1.8. Calcoli statistici: l’isolamento del 99% dei pazienti ferma la diffusione solo del 24.9 per cento al 4 febbraio. Sembra che sia trasmissibile anche in soggetti asintomatici… adesso è fra 2.5 e 2.8...
🔴 BREAKING: WHO reports that a patient in Vietnam with no previous travels to China has contracted the coronavirus. …the incubation period is longer than expected… 2 weeks apparently… very bad for detection methods…
🔴 Updated official figures: 41 dead; 1287 infected; 1965 suspected cases; 13967 under medical observation. China/Coronavirus
🔴 Coronavirus: As new cases surge, health experts inside and outside USG say they believe the Chinese government is significantly underreporting number of cases and deaths in that country. One estimate: numbers are likely 10x higher.
🔴 BREAKING: 450 military medical staff arrive in China’s virus epicentre: state media
🔴 Breaking: Three cases of coronavirus reported in Malaysia.
🔴 US medical experts: “Wuhan Virus” vaccine development takes at least six months.
🔴 Liang Wudong, a doctor at Hubei Xinhua Hospital who had been at the front line of the Coronavirus Outbreak battle in Wuhan, dies from the virus at age 62.
🔴 Victorian Health has confirmed it has Australia’s first confirmed case of the new and deadly coronavirus.
The state’s health minister said the person is a Chinese National in his 50s that had spent time in the city Wuhan.
He has been isolated in a Melbourne hospital.
🔴 180 new cases of Wuhan Coronavirus infection were confirmed in Hubei Province, with 15 deaths all in Wuhan; total number of infected patients rose to 729 with 39 deaths in the province, local health authority released on 5:01 am Saturday local time.
🔴 CORONAVIRUS: 1,125 confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide – 41 fatalities. Wuhan China
🔴 Igor Koralnik, MD, Neuro-infectious disease specialists at Northwestern Med discusses in-depth what you should know about how the Coronavirus has evolved, how it is transmitted, and symptoms you should be aware of.
🔴 Pe 18 octombrie 2019, un nene de la Centrul John Hopkins a fãcut o simulare de pandemie cu un virus identic cu cel de azi din China, în cadrul evenimentului “201. A Global Pandemic Exercise”. Din supa primordialã a exercițiului nu putea lipsi fundația eugenistului Bill Gates. Trãim în visul cuiva… businessinsider.com
🔴 In the cities bordering Wuhan’s Hubei Province medical emergency points have been set up. This is in Henan. China/CoronaVirus
🔴 BREAKING: Turkish Health Minister Koca: 18 people were killed, 553 others were injured after the Elazığ earthquake, search and rescue efforts continuing.