POLITIX

Non per seminare panico ma, sul menù del ristorante cinese vicino casa mia, accanto alla voce “involtini primavera” hanno aggiunto la scritta “se ci arriviamo”….

🔴 Riepilogo del 25 Gennaio:

1) 1439 i casi confermati , 42 le vittime;
2) Ogni singola Provincia della Cina ha i suoi casi di contagio;
3) Fuori dalla Cina, i paesi piu colpiti sono Thailandia (5), Australia (4), Francia (3).
4) Iniziata la costruzione di un secondo ospedale a Wuhan, per aggiuntivi 1300 posti letto
5) Oggi molti gruppi di ricerca si, sono, confrontati in modo serrato sulle (poche) info relative al virus. In particolare R0 è molto dibattuto, tutti però sono concordi su un livello molto alto.
6) Il tasso di mortalità stesso è ancora dibattuto. Non basta dividere decessi sui casi conclamati
7) Da domani blocco veicolare privato a Wuhan
8) USA e Francia hanno previsto il recupero e l’estrazione da Wuhan e altre zone in quarantena dei loro connazionali
9) Il presidente cinese Xi ha rilasciato dichiarazioni molto preoccupanti sull’epidemia
10) È stato individuato un caso accertato il primo dicembre che, stando alle ricostruzione dei medici di Wuhan, non avrebbe avuto contatti con il mercato di animali vivi (l’epicentro)

🔴 All interstate transportation services in and out of Beijing will be suspended starting tomorrow as China declares a 1st level emergency response.

🔴 UPDATE: Transmission of coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad – each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit Corona Outbreak containment will be very difficult.

🔴 Esperto francese afferma che virus cinese sembra meno pericoloso della SARS. …in base a cosa ? 51 milioni di persone con una restrizione della libertà per un virus meno pericoloso di SARS?

🔴 BREAKING: Latest number for Wuhan Coronavirus in mainland China:
– 1372 confirmed cases
– 41 deaths
– 39 recovered

Jan 25 / 18:00

Happy Lunar New Year, really?

🔴 Lunar New Year’s Day in Beijing…

🔴 Coronavirus: l’infezione può essere diffusa da persone senza alcun sintomo e senza febbre. …è una pessima notizia…

🔴 I due pazienti, risultati positivi, a Parigi sono marito e moglie, originari di Wuhan. Le loro condizioni di salute sono buone e stabili. Il virus, ha spiegato il capo del servizio malattie infettive di Bichat, é meno grave del Sars – Parigi/RaiNews

🔴 Presidente cinese: situazione grave, epidemia accelera, vinceremo questa battaglia. Appello al Pc, affinchè direzione sia compatta.

🔴 BREAKING: President Xi warns virus is “accelerating”, country facing “grave situation”: state media – AFP

🔴 US government looking to arrange chartered flights to evacuate American citizens from areas of China affected by Corona Virus

🔴 Con il sistema dei trasporti ormai del tutto bloccato, il personale medico e infermieristico ha notevoli problemi nel compiere il tragitto casa – lavoro. Gli operatori alberghieri metteranno a disposizione 85 alberghi per rendere più agevole il raggiungimento degli ospedali, da parte del personale sanitario.

🔴 Sembra un film di fantascienza, invece è realtà…

Just entered Hubei Province where the coronarvirus outbreak started. Virtually nobody on the streets here. At the checkpoint the police said we can go in but they won’t let us back out. It looks like the entire province of Hubei, population 30 million, to be locked down… – Stephen Mc Donell

🔴 China physically blocking the road to prevent spread of coronarovirus. On the border btw Jingzhou and Yichang in Hubei province. Provincial capital Wuhan already under lockdown. …not so much as to prevent the spread the coronavirus but to prevent people from escaping the place…

🔴 HongKong has declared the coronavirus outbreak an emergency. Leader Carrie Lam has said that schools will remain closed until at least Feb. 17 and all trains and flights from Wuhan, China will be stopped.

🔴 One more infected person today! Japan’s third case of new coronavirus infection confirmed in Tokyo 2020/1/25. the patient was Wuhan, China.

🔴 Domani urne aperte dalle 7.00 alle 23.00 per le elezioni regionali in Emilia Romagna e in Calabria

🔴 Alex Ferrari: Ovviamente non mi è consentito rivelare il totale contenuto degli incontri, ma posso dire che il vicepresidente Mike Pence ha comunicato al Quirinale un certo malumore per la situazione politica italiana, con forti critiche all’attuale esecutivo, ritenuto non all’altezza.

🔴 Zarif: è in prigione il militare che ha attivato il missile che ha abbattuto jet ucraino. …e la catena di comando? …almeno non lo hanno premiato come il comandante del Vincennes nel 1988 volo Iran Air 655…

🔴 SIRIA: Nella prime ore dell’offensiva, l’esercito siriano ha riconquistato 8 villaggi nella provincia di Idlib, su 2 diversi punti di offensiva verso l’autostrada M5, il più significativo in direzione di Maraat al Numan distante meno di 3km. Una posizione catturata presso Aleppo. – Angelo Gambella

🔴 REUTERS: Iran has capacity to enrich at any percentage: deputy head of nuclear agency.

Pasticcini, everyone ?

Happy Saturday !

POLITIX

🔴 Virus cinese… Per Pechino una gestione della crisi “alla Chernobyl”.

🔴 Riepilogo della giornata di 24/01/2020

1) 16 città cinesi in quarantena. Per un totale di quasi 50 milioni di abitanti.

2) 1126 casi confermati di contagio e 41 decessi (dati cinesi). Noterete un incremento nel tasso di mortalità
3) Il virus è sbarcato in Europa, precisamente in Francia che ha registrato 3 casi di nCoV2019

4) Altri paesi con numeri in aumento sono la Thailandia, 5 casi così come a Hong Kong.

5) Il Nepal registra il suo primo caso conclamato

6) A Wuhan, l’epicentro, interviene l’esercito con 150 medici militari in soccorso al personale medico ormai allo stremo.

7) R0 viene ritoccato al rialzo

🔴 La situazione in Cina a causa dell’infezione da Coronavirus si fa sempre più complessa e peggiorerà in questi giorni per la saturazione delle unità diagnostico-terapeutiche impegnate nel contrasto alla malattia. Non si troveranno più luoghi idonei nell’epicentro dell’infezione al ricovero delle persone e ciò potrebbe determinare un aumento della mortalità.

Determinante sarà osservare l’eventuale diffusione della malattia in altre città della Cina, che non siano “satelliti” di Wuhan.

Registriamo casi in America Asia Europa Oceania, ci chiediamo quindi cosa stia trattenendo l’Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità dal dichiarare lo stato di emergenza sanitaria globale.

Questa dichiarazione dovrebbe anche servire ad evitare che un eventuale patogeno possa diffondersi su tutta la terra e mettere in serio pericolo la vita delle persone e la nostra stessa struttura sociale. 50 milioni di persone in quarantena non sono già di per se un valido motivo per attivare tutte le nostre “difese”?

Chi siede all’OMS pensi meno alla politica e di più ai dati! – geopoliticalcenter.it

🔴 Doctor Liang Wudong at the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital who had been at the front line fighting against nCoV2019 in Wuhan, died from the virus on Sat at the age of 62. RIP

🔴 Dr. Eric Feigl Ding/Public Health Scientist/ Epidemiologist:

Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying – I’m a scientist. This coronavirus Wuhan Coronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict WHO will declare emergency. …Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst…

🔴 BREAKING: Carrie Lam/ Hong Kong to upgrade to highest level amid Coronavirus Outbreak, flights and trains from Wuhan City suspended indefinitely. HK has five confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus.

🔴 Hong Kong dichiara emergenza sanitaria nazionale!

🔴 A secondary specialist hospital will be built in Wuhan, China to deal with Coronavirus. This one will have bed capacity of 1300.

🔴 The health commission have also requested that 24 general hospitals be converted to specialised hospitals for coronoavirus adding an additional 6000 beds. …so China says only 890 people are infected but they now need 10,000+ beds for patients 🙃

🔴 Hundreds of trucks with food supplies queuing on the highway heading to Wuhan. The city has been blocked to prevent further speading of the Pneumonia and there are over 11 million people in Wuhan now relying on supplies from outside.

POLITIX

🔴 In just 24 days, we have seen…

– A geopolitical crisis with Iran; culminating in an attack on al-Asad airbase near Baghdad.

– Downing of Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752.

– The start of impeachment proceedings in the senate.

– Wuhan Virus becoming a regional health crisis.

🔴 Non è nulla… la Cina allarga la quarantena a 56 milioni di abitanti... ho la sensazione che presto verrà imposta anche a Shangai…

🔴 NEW: China is now implementing nationwide measures to detect the Wuhan virus – AFP

🔴 Dr. Eric Feigl Ding/Public Health Scientist/ Epidemiologist:

1/ “HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – the new coronavirus is a 3.8! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating…” – Wuhan Coronovirus/Coronavirus Outbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing…

3/ … We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan….

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that…

5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are…

6/ …critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that…

7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!!

8/ SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS…

9/ …cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with…

10/ …possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. WHO and CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!

11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: [link]

12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new Wuhan Coronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. Flu reference: [link]

13/ …and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients… quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”!

14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks…

I’ll be honest – as an epidemiologist, I’m really deeply worried about this new coronavirus outbreak.

1) the virus has an upward infection trajectory curve much steeper than SARS.

2) it can be transmitted person to person before symptoms appear — I.e. it is silently contagious!

This is why I’m nervous about this outbreak as an epidemiologist. If this happened in America – it would be like shutting down half the Eastern seaboard – basically the entire Mid Atlantic region or more. …la spagnola aveva un R0 molto più basso, 1.8. Calcoli statistici: l’isolamento del 99% dei pazienti ferma la diffusione solo del 24.9 per cento al 4 febbraio. Sembra che sia trasmissibile anche in soggetti asintomatici… adesso è fra 2.5 e 2.8...

🔴 BREAKING: WHO reports that a patient in Vietnam with no previous travels to China has contracted the coronavirus. …the incubation period is longer than expected… 2 weeks apparently… very bad for detection methods…

🔴 Updated official figures: 41 dead; 1287 infected; 1965 suspected cases; 13967 under medical observation. China/Coronavirus

🔴 Coronavirus: As new cases surge, health experts inside and outside USG say they believe the Chinese government is significantly underreporting number of cases and deaths in that country. One estimate: numbers are likely 10x higher.

🔴 BREAKING: 450 military medical staff arrive in China’s virus epicentre: state media

🔴 Breaking: Three cases of coronavirus reported in Malaysia.

🔴 US medical experts: “Wuhan Virus” vaccine development takes at least six months.

🔴 Liang Wudong, a doctor at Hubei Xinhua Hospital who had been at the front line of the Coronavirus Outbreak battle in Wuhan, dies from the virus at age 62.

🔴 Victorian Health has confirmed it has Australia’s first confirmed case of the new and deadly coronavirus.

The state’s health minister said the person is a Chinese National in his 50s that had spent time in the city Wuhan.

He has been isolated in a Melbourne hospital.

🔴 180 new cases of Wuhan Coronavirus infection were confirmed in Hubei Province, with 15 deaths all in Wuhan; total number of infected patients rose to 729 with 39 deaths in the province, local health authority released on 5:01 am Saturday local time.

🔴 CORONAVIRUS: 1,125 confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide – 41 fatalities. Wuhan China

🔴 Igor Koralnik, MD, Neuro-infectious disease specialists at Northwestern Med discusses in-depth what you should know about how the Coronavirus has evolved, how it is transmitted, and symptoms you should be aware of.

🔴 Pe 18 octombrie 2019, un nene de la Centrul John Hopkins a fãcut o simulare de pandemie cu un virus identic cu cel de azi din China, în cadrul evenimentului “201. A Global Pandemic Exercise”. Din supa primordialã a exercițiului nu putea lipsi fundația eugenistului Bill Gates. Trãim în visul cuiva… businessinsider.com

🔴 In the cities bordering Wuhan’s Hubei Province medical emergency points have been set up. This is in Henan. China/CoronaVirus

🔴 BREAKING: Turkish Health Minister Koca: 18 people were killed, 553 others were injured after the Elazığ earthquake, search and rescue efforts continuing.